For positive events, the mean comparative judgment indicates the size of the optimistic bias, but for negative events, the measure of optimistic bias was obtained by reversing the sign of the mean comparative judgment. Therefore, the dependent variable in the test of this hypothesis was the degree of optimism produced. Hypothesis 5, however, was phrased differently, predicting a positive association between perceived controllability and optimism.

' The dependent variable in the models that tested the contributions of degree of desirability, perceived probability, and personal experience was the mean comparative judgment from Column 1 of Table 1. Consequently, significance tests refer to the null hypothesis that the effects V The data for these analyses consisted of the mean comparative judgments for the 42 events, the mean characteristic ratings, and the type designations. 0 Significance levels refer to a chi-square test of the hypothesis that frequencies of optimistic and pessimistic responses are equal. For negative events, the definitions of optimistic and pessimistic responses are reversed.

b For positive events, the response that one's own chances are greater than average is considered optimistic, and the response that one's own chances are less than average is considered pessimistic. Student's t was used to test whether the mean is significantly different from zero. N = 123 to 130, depending on rating form and missing data. ' In making a comparative judgment, students estimated the difference in percent between the chances that an event would happen to them and the average chances for other same-sex students at their college. Marrying someone wealthy Negative events 19. Statewide recognition in your profession 15. 80Ībbreviated event description Positive events 1. In Study 1, 258 college students estimated how much their own chances of experiencing 42 events differed from the chances of their classmates. Unrealistic Optimism About Future Life Eventsĭepartment of Human Ecology and Social Sciences Cook College, Rutgers-The State University Two studies investigated the tendency of people to be unrealistically optimistic about future life events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 1980, Vol.

Unrealistic optimism weinstein 1980